I usually don’t send a retort to posts on competitors’ blog, as I just figure people can derive their own conclusions from what they read, but I am so annoyed by this effort to cajole the radio industry that I have grown to respect, that I will only feel relief by openly rebutting it. It is nothing other than a cheap shot at an industry in genuine transition. I understand what drives the thinking within it, because I too have been frustrated at the slower than expected pace of radio networks moving content to mobile radio, and have been tempted to do likewise. The thing that stops me though is the wisdom of mentors who cautioned me not to lash out for attention when you are frustrated.

Before I go deeper into how counterproductive this partisan outsider approach is, my first point is that the 36 month prediction of radios relegation to “the dustbin” is just plain wrong. Not only is there no precedent for it, as radio has survived quite well over many cycles of similar predictions, the various tools emerging to potentially supplant radio are only now getting their first market tests (apart from general web streaming). They are mostly device and/or carrier dependent, not to mention requiring consumer adaptation hurdles acceptable currently only to narrow demographics. To borrow from Thomas Jefferson, “We (those within the radio industry) hold these truths to be self-evident”. In short, the industry will not expire, but it will gradually transform into a multi-platform model. The platforms that still reach 93% of the population are not going away anytime soon, nor should they.

Secondly, talking down radio, as David Rehr so aptly stated in his NAB Radio Show Opening Keynote Address today is a senseless self-inflicted wound that we would expect to be reserved for radio’s detractors. The only people that benefit from creating a divide between new and old media are those davidrehr125.jpgseeking to acquire old media’s hard earned treasure. What happens when we leave these kind of new media startup pronouncements left unchecked? We create two narratives: One where new media people continue to talk about the stodgy old radio executives that are too slow to progress, and another where radio executives are content to withhold support from new initiatives without high guarantees of success.

The course I have decided upon for CelleCast, as newcomers working within a mature radio industry, is to present cell phone radio on demand as a complement to the goals of radio, rather than a supplanter of the position of radio. Not only does this dismantle the pointless partisan narrative that impedes progress, it opens dialog to where it needs to be. For the life of me I can’t figure out why this has eluded so many, unless it is indeed true that radio’s culture is so change resistant that it vilifies all newcomers. My experience is not consistent with that. Instead, I talk to smart radio people everyday that, despite the deluge they are under trying to do more with less, are totally open to what we offer, provided that we are not pushing the revenue question off into the future as Silicon Valley seems content to do. Radio has a long legacy of making money, which of course newcomers want to grab a piece of, so it is no surprise to me that today’s industry gatekeepers are slow to experiment with unproven ideas.

Long live Radio!


5 Responses to “Prognosticating the Demise of Radio Will Get Us Nowhere”

  1. Summer Says:

    Very well stated. Those new media solutions that demonstrate themselves as providing a relevant solution to the radio industry, with a clear path for revenue gains, are the ones who will be left standing. And helping talk radio re-invent itself no less.

    Radio is indeed far from dead.

  2. jlamarca Says:

    I am tired of hearing from self appointed prognosticators who believe radio is 12, 24 or 36 months away from anhiliation or some other doomsday scenario. This kind of blanket indictment suggests no one in the industry is willing to try new things. Maybe industry leaders are unwilling to try their particular product or they’ve had too many rejections, but the fact is some innovative broadcasters ARE experimenting and delving into new media and web 3.0 in particular. CelleCast has over 40 premium audio programs using mobile to reach their audience on thier terms with radio on demand. Certainly we hope and expect that the founding 40 are soon joined by the other leading programs in the U.S., but radio has been slow to add new features as new media has grown, so it may take a little longer than we would like. However, the industry like the coutnry in general is facing tough times and that is when change and innovatiion usually occurs. I believe the industry executives that have taken a wait and see attitude are waking up and are more open to new media as a tool for their media than ever before.

  3. George Says:

    Interesting to see how the Foneshow guy backpedals in his next post after saying clearly that he sees radio dying in 36 months. I am sure he is feeling a bit awkward marketing himself to an industry while trash-talking it at the same time.

  4. Dave Van Dyke Says:

    I’ve been involved with radio behavior research for years and Bridge Ratings has been accurately reflecting radio’s true growth progress since 2000.

    Not only is radio listenership, in general, growing, but we are also seeing recent trends that the youth market continues to depend on terrestrial radio especially for music discovery. Pundits seeking radio’s demise with 12-24 year olds are missing the general mood amongst this demographic who are using traditional radio alongside their other digital media. They’ve figured it out - it’s perhaps non-suprising that self-proclaimed experts would predict a non-rational 36 month death, when doing so only serves their purposes.

  5. Radio News for Monday, 9/22/2008 | Radio NX Says:

    We linked to this story on our radio industry news site here: http://radionx.com/2008/09/22/radio-news-for-monday-9222008/

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