After another year of reading of the continued, gradual (and predicted) decline of radio in all its various manifestations, there are few radio writers that have stood out to me with a unique ability to bring the news into a practical balance. Whether you are “in” radio or a supporting industry like ours bringing talk radio to mobile phones, I suggest you join me in listening to Eric Rhoads. Here is his recent summary of the state of radio in 2009:

First, the bad news.

  • Radio will be down 18-20 percent in 2009 and is expected to finish the year at $15.5 billion, down from $21.5 billion in 2006.
  • Radio has lost over 10,000 jobs, and that number could increase.
  • Several radio companies are facing bankruptcy.
  • High fixed costs (much of which is debt), perishable inventory, and overcapacity are creating a deflationary spiral in rates, which continue to fall.
  • We have commoditized the radio business because it’s easier to stimulate demand through price than to train people and hold them accountable for selling value.
  • Much of our industry has been forced to eliminate valuable localism, strong sales organizations with accountability, and much-needed promotion.
  • We face low-cost competition from online media, which is seducing advertisers with brilliant technology that makes offerings highly targetable and attractive.
  • The likelihood of increased federal regulation appears to be looming, with deeper controls on content and potentially increased costs through performance royalties.

Now, the good news.

  • Unlike print, newspapers, and television, radio listening is alive and well, and radio continues to have a strong hold on audiences. Our audiences are not eroding.
  • New data suggests that radio has not lost its grip on the youth market and remains relevant with 18-34-year-olds.
  • Independent broadcasters and many small-market operators have been able to prevent severe declines in business with strong localism strategies.
  • Some radio companies are starting to wake up to the fact that digital media plays a significant role in our future and are integrating it deeply into their organizations.
  • Desperate times spawn great innovations. New plans seem to be emerging that will change the very nature of how we operate our business.
  • Bankruptcies and further consolidation will weed out many of those who have had a negative impact on radio.
  • There is money to be made even in a declining industry, and most industries cycle back eventually.
  • Breakups of some larger groups will spawn more independent, true-to-the core broadcasters.

Integrating digital strategies deep into the organization? We are ready to help!


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